{
  "createdAt": "2026-09-10",
  "model": "Season form baseline: Elo 1500 / K=20 / scale=400",
  "method": "Start every team equally. Predict before each game using only earlier days; update after all games on that date. Use pre-January results for warmup and evaluate January onward. Exclude exhibitions, ties in evaluation, and opponents outside the imported D1 directory. No parameter selection on the evaluation set.",
  "limitations": [
    "One season only; no independent season holdout.",
    "This baseline is not the existing playoff simulator, which uses retrospective NPI and postseason polls. These results do not validate that simulator.",
    "No home ice, injuries, player changes, automatic bids or selection probabilities.",
    "Frozen Four percentages in the simulator are conditional on the selected field. They are not the probability of qualifying for the tournament."
  ],
  "source": {
    "men-skaters": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/conferences/national/natplayer26.php",
    "women-skaters": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/women/national/natplayer26.php",
    "men-goalies": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/conferences/national/natgoalie26.php",
    "women-goalies": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/women/national/natgoalie26.php",
    "men-schedule": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/men/compnatfull26.php",
    "women-schedule": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/women/compnatfull26.php",
    "men-upcoming": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/men/compnatfull27.php",
    "women-upcoming": "https://collegehockeyinc.com/women/compnatfull27.php",
    "draft-2025": "https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/draft-history.php?year=2025",
    "draft-2024": "https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/draft-history.php?year=2024",
    "draft-2023": "https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/draft-history.php?year=2023",
    "draft-2022": "https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/draft-history.php?year=2022",
    "draft-2026": "https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/draft-history.php?year=2026",
    "draft-2020": "https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/draft-history.php?year=2020",
    "draft-2021": "https://www.collegehockeynews.com/almanac/draft-history.php?year=2021",
    "pwhl-draft": "https://www.thepwhl.com/en/draft"
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "group": "d1-men",
      "games": 554,
      "trainingStart": "2025-10-03",
      "testStart": "2026-01-01",
      "testEnd": "2026-04-11",
      "brier": 0.22518137444560238,
      "coinFlipBrier": 0.25,
      "logLoss": 0.6418071543100912,
      "accuracy": 0.6353790613718412,
      "calibration": [
        {
          "range": "20\u201330%",
          "games": 34,
          "averageProbability": 0.26600567713110745,
          "actualWinRate": 0.20588235294117646
        },
        {
          "range": "30\u201340%",
          "games": 95,
          "averageProbability": 0.3596225343541543,
          "actualWinRate": 0.2736842105263158
        },
        {
          "range": "40\u201350%",
          "games": 169,
          "averageProbability": 0.4483931314373537,
          "actualWinRate": 0.34911242603550297
        },
        {
          "range": "50\u201360%",
          "games": 158,
          "averageProbability": 0.5477056314767552,
          "actualWinRate": 0.5063291139240507
        },
        {
          "range": "60\u201370%",
          "games": 84,
          "averageProbability": 0.6389173248470895,
          "actualWinRate": 0.6547619047619048
        },
        {
          "range": "70\u201380%",
          "games": 14,
          "averageProbability": 0.7342740078656622,
          "actualWinRate": 0.7857142857142857
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "group": "d1-women",
      "games": 370,
      "trainingStart": "2025-09-19",
      "testStart": "2026-01-01",
      "testEnd": "2026-03-22",
      "brier": 0.19136938050134156,
      "coinFlipBrier": 0.25,
      "logLoss": 0.56900798783722,
      "accuracy": 0.7513513513513513,
      "calibration": [
        {
          "range": "10\u201320%",
          "games": 9,
          "averageProbability": 0.17039187416869372,
          "actualWinRate": 0.0
        },
        {
          "range": "20\u201330%",
          "games": 30,
          "averageProbability": 0.263149247904208,
          "actualWinRate": 0.06666666666666667
        },
        {
          "range": "30\u201340%",
          "games": 77,
          "averageProbability": 0.35637300226076074,
          "actualWinRate": 0.19480519480519481
        },
        {
          "range": "40\u201350%",
          "games": 100,
          "averageProbability": 0.4483916285377895,
          "actualWinRate": 0.31
        },
        {
          "range": "50\u201360%",
          "games": 76,
          "averageProbability": 0.5428815906155925,
          "actualWinRate": 0.5921052631578947
        },
        {
          "range": "60\u201370%",
          "games": 47,
          "averageProbability": 0.6465527772410904,
          "actualWinRate": 0.7659574468085106
        },
        {
          "range": "70\u201380%",
          "games": 26,
          "averageProbability": 0.7318192423264946,
          "actualWinRate": 0.9230769230769231
        },
        {
          "range": "80\u201390%",
          "games": 5,
          "averageProbability": 0.8240522936661048,
          "actualWinRate": 1.0
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}